China US trade war escalates again: Behind the threat of 100% tariffs, a big game that will determine the global economic landscape for the next decade

Have you ever thought that a seemingly distant trade dispute may be quietly changing your cost of living, job opportunities, and even the direction of your country's development?
Just a few days ago, US President Trump announced the imposition of 100% additional tariffs on all Chinese imports starting from November 1st. This news is like a heavy bomb, causing a huge wave in the global financial market - the three major US stock indices collectively fell, the US dollar weakened, and US bond yields plummeted. At the same time, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce released the "2025 Report on the United States' Compliance with WTO Rules and Obligations", criticizing the United States as a "disruptor of the multilateral trading system" for the third consecutive year.
This is not a simple tariff dispute, but a comprehensive game involving technology, resources, and industry chain dominance. From 34% to 125%, and now to 100% "additional" tariffs; The economic and trade relationship between China and the United States is experiencing unprecedented turbulence, from the regulation of heavy rare earths to the blockade of EDA software.

So, where is this' table lifting 'confrontation heading? How should we understand the deep logic behind it?

Act 1: Rebirth of War - Three Major Changes in Ten Days
In October 2025, the trade situation between China and the United States took a sharp turn for the worse.
In early April, the United States raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 125%, citing the so-called "principle of reciprocity". The Chinese side quickly retaliated by adding six American companies to the list of unreliable entities and expanding the export control list.
A brief ceasefire occurred on May 12th, when China and the United States reached a temporary agreement: China would lower its tariffs on US imports from 34% to 10%, while the United States would temporarily impose a 30% tariff on China. The White House declared in a high-profile manner at the time, "This is a great victory for President Trump
But peace only lasted for less than half a year.
On September 25th, Trump announced a 100% tariff on imported branded drugs;
On October 3rd, the US Customs decided to impose high port fees on Chinese vessels;
On October 10th, the most powerful blow arrived - announcing the imposition of 100% additional tariffs on all Chinese imported goods starting from November 1st!
The market instantly plunged into panic. The analyst exclaimed, "This is no longer a trade war, but an economic declaration of war
However, dramatically, just three days later, Treasury Secretary Besson stated on Fox Business News, "100% tariffs may not necessarily happen." Trump himself also said on Air Force One, "I think we will reach an agreement with China
Is this strategy of waving a big stick while handing out an olive branch an art of negotiation and pressure, or a manifestation of policy chaos?

Act 2: From Tariff War to Precision Strike - A Life and Death Battle between Technology and Resources
If the early trade war still remained in the extensive mode of "comprehensive tax increases", then today's China US game has already entered the stage of "precision guidance".
The United States adopts the "small courtyard high wall" strategy, concentrating firepower to strike China's high-tech lifeline:
In March 2025, the US Department of Commerce included 54 Chinese entities on its Entity List, covering key areas such as artificial intelligence, supercomputing, aviation, and nuclear energy;
At the end of May, export controls on EDA software will be implemented. EDA (Electronic Design Automation) is the "brain" of chip design, without which high-end chip research and development is almost impossible;
On October 7th, the House Select Committee on Strategic Competition between China and the United States released a report recommending the implementation of the strictest semiconductor equipment ban in history.
And China's countermeasures are equally precise and deadly - rare earths and supply chain control.
On October 9th, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, in conjunction with the General Administration of Customs, issued new regulations restricting the export of five types of medium and heavy rare earth and lithium battery materials, including holmium and erbium. These elements are widely used in missile guidance systems, electric vehicle motors, and wind turbines, and are essential strategic resources for the US military and new energy industries.
What is even more intriguing is the change in soybean trade: in September 2025, China's imports of soybeans from the United States were zero, a year-on-year drop of 100%! Instead, soybean imports from Brazil and Argentina increased by nearly 30% and over 90% respectively. This means that China is reshaping the global agricultural trade landscape with market forces.
Act Three: Who is more inseparable from whom? The reality of manufacturing industry breaks the illusion of decoupling
Despite the increasingly tense political atmosphere, the industrial chain connections in reality are much stronger than imagined.
Data shows that in the first half of 2025, the total amount of goods imported by the United States from China will still reach 287 billion US dollars, covering multiple core areas of people's livelihood and industry such as electronic products, mechanical equipment, medical equipment, etc. Giants such as Apple, Tesla, and General Electric still heavily rely on the Chinese manufacturing system.
At the same time, although China is accelerating the promotion of "domestic substitution", it still needs to import American technology or components in high-end lithography machines, aviation engines and other fields. Complete decoupling is not only costly, but also almost impossible to achieve in the short term.
The real game is not about whether to decouple, but about who can build an autonomous and controllable supply chain ecosystem faster. The United States is promoting "friend sharing" and attempting to woo Japan, South Korea, and India to build a de Sinicization chain; China has deepened cooperation with ASEAN, the Middle East and Africa through the "the Belt and Road" to create a new fulcrum of globalization.
The essence of this competition is a battle for the dominance of the global industrial chain in the next decade.
For ordinary people, this great power game is no longer just news headlines. It means:
The prices of electronic products such as mobile phones and home appliances may rise;
Employees of export-oriented enterprises face the risk of order reduction;
Investors need to be vigilant about the drastic fluctuations in the stock market and exchange rate;
But at the same time, it also gives birth to opportunities for the rise of new tracks such as new energy, semiconductors, and independently controllable software.
The best way to deal with uncertainty is not to panic, but to maintain a clear understanding and flexible adaptability.
Whether it is a country or an individual, only by finding a balance between openness and security, and seeking a way out through cooperation and competition, can they remain invincible in this unprecedented great change.